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25 March 2009 @ 11:14 pm
The Carrington Event as Pent-Up releases (mental exercise)1st a little kink of music  
The Carrington Event signaled the end of the Maunder Minimums and ushered 150 years of heightened solar activity. Ssolar output is cyclical; 11(22-Hale cycle), ~100 -gleissberg-cycle (~200- Suess), and ~400? (~800?) year cycles differentiated by the variances of their dipoles of intensities. Daily solar observations have been recorded since the 1600s and the Carrington Event of 1859 is its only observed example and it occurred 9 years after the last maunder minimum event, the Dalton Minimum. This Carrington event is 209 years older than the Second Maunder Minimum event so it must be a feedback product of at least a ~400 (~800) year dipole cycle (2 peak levels over ~800 years; one ~400 year peak and valley climb substantially lower than the other *a "Y" to a "y"*). We know that the Medieval Warm Period melted the Greenland ice sheet, so it was the big ~400 year "Y" .</p>

Following the Dipole cycle math then we are starting down the backside (low) of the last ~100 (~200) year cycle of the ~400 year "Y". Causal math suggest that the first 2>~100 years (Gleissbergs) of the next "y" cycle have minimums equal to or greater than the last ~100 years of the "Y". The next resulting Carrington event, therefore, should not result until the late 23nd . century if it is the action potential igniter of heightened solar activity for both dipoles of the ~400 (~800) years solar cycle. If Carrington Events only ignite "Y"s then it will not occur until the 27th or 28th century.

The fact of our inability, so far, to find Modern Warming of Greenland comparable to its Medieval warmth however supports the addition of the Halstatt ~2300 year cycle as a probability for planning if the 400(800) year pattern does indeed lead to significantly less sunspot activity for the next ~200+year and a cooler climate system without a Warm Greenland Signal.

As indicated with discussions of the Sun's plasma conveyor belt activity, it is likely that the different on again off again sunspot cycle patterns extend out into much longer time/event sequences that are captives of Milankovitch cycles.(Carbon dating evidnece of Japanese Tree Rings, as far as I know, has only verified solar cycle lengths and the variants of solar cycles to the accountable lengths that are possible when dating cycles and variants to the 15th century.)

Solar activity events and approximate dates
Oort minimum (see /Medieval_Warm_Period) 1040-1080
Medieval maximum 1100-1250
Wolf minimum 1280-1350
Spörer Minimum 1450-1550
Maunder Minimum 1645-1715
Dalton Minimum 1790-1820
Modern Maximum (1859?) 1950?-2006?